MOOCs: FUTURE OR FAD?

I was talking with a few of our MBA students last week and I was curious about their take on one of the latest emerging technologies in higher education – the MOOC – an acronym for Massive Open Online Courses. The theory is basically this – classes are put online and available to anyone in the world – no college credit but they are free. Many of our top universities in the U.S. offer MOOCs including Stanford, Duke, Berkeley, MIT, Harvard, Yale, and UCLA and hundreds of thousands of students worldwide have enrolled in MOOCs.

My first question(s) to the students were strategic in nature. What did they think of the MOOC concept, what was its potential, and what kind of threat(s) did it pose to higher education? They all thought MOOCs had lots of promise and offered at least a partial solution to some of the problems of higher education like rising costs and limited access to higher education. But they were quick to point out some of the glaring issues that MOOCs faced, namely: (1) an employer typically wants some type of proof that students have truly learned material; (2) students actually want to receive credit for courses they take; (3) colleges and universities would like to stay in business and keep making money; and (4) professors probably don’t want their jobs outsourced to computers. As for the long term threat, they were less in agreement about that but one student said “it’s hard to anticipate how new products/ideas will evolve in the market. Blockbuster certainly didn’t view Netflix as a threat with their initial business model. But the Netflix business model evolved and Blockbuster folded.”

My second question was whether they thought MOOCs were a possibility for MBA programs/courses. They all said no way – that MBA curricula didn’t really fit the MOOC model.

I then handed them each a description of the University of Virginia’s Darden School pioneering MOOC course entitled “Grow to Greatness: Smart Growth for Private Businesses” which begins January 28, 2013. It’s available worldwide at no cost to anyone with a computer and internet connection. The Darden School had nearly 20,000 sign-ups in the first 30 days after the MOOC was announced. This course just happens to parallel a course in the Darden MBA program focused solely on the challenges of growing existing entrepreneurial businesses. The MOOC also fits the Darden mission of educating both students and practitioners. Darden faculty believe they will reach thousands of students and small business owners all over the world who otherwise would not have the opportunity to come to Darden and learn and in so doing will help create jobs and have a positive impact in these students’ societies.

I love the look on students’ faces when you present them with an idea that is both logical and one they haven’t considered.

Isn’t that what learning is all about?

STEVE JOBS AND THE POST-PC ERA

Each semester we host several information sessions for our MBA program. The purpose of these sessions is to not only market our program but also to answer in real time various questions prospective students might have regarding the MBA program, give them a “feel” for certain aspects of the program, and introduce them to one or more of our MBA faculty. At our last session, there was something that caught my eye. Every attendee had a tablet or a PC but the tablets outnumbered PCs by almost a 2:1 margin. This was a significant change even from the previous semester and it got me to thinking about a larger issue – PCs and their future.

In marketing, there is a well-known concept called the Product Life Cycle (PLC). Essentially, the PLC defines several stages that all products pass through beginning with introduction and ending with decline. The decline stage is almost always brought about by the introduction of a replacement product. It doesn’t happen overnight but the older product gradually fades away as sales decline. There are, as you might imagine, many well publicized examples of product decline. The TV marked the decline of the radio, electronic word processors replaced typewriters, DVDs replaced VHS tapes and laserdiscs and are in the process themselves of being replaced by streaming video. The point being that it’s fairly easy to spot decline stages in retrospect. It’s a lot more difficult to identify them early because replacement products take a bit of time to catch on with consumers. Some products are initial hits but never get over the hurdle of widespread consumer acceptance. Take the Segway – looked extremely promising at introduction but never translated over to mainstream.

Here’s a question for you to consider. Are we currently witnessing the early signs of product decline for PCs? PC sales are going to be down in 2012 for the first time in over a decade. Intel and Dell stocks, closely tied to PC sales, are both down significantly in 2012. Apple, manufacturer of the world’s best-selling tablet (the potential replacement for PCs), was up 30% in 2012. The initial projection was that tablets would outsell PCs by perhaps 2016. That estimate has been revised. Several sources are predicting channel sales of tablets will top PC shipments in 2013.

In June 2010, Steve Jobs made what many consider the first reference to the onset of the decline stage for PCs when he said, “I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Less people will need them. And this transformation is going to make some people uneasy…. because the PC has taken us a long way… We like to talk about the post-PC era, but when it really starts to happen, it’s uncomfortable…”

Put PCs on your watch list.